M Mojarab; H Memarian; M Zare; V Kossobokov
Abstract
The earthquake of 23 October 2011, near the Turkish city of Van, had 600 victims and caused great damages in Van, Argis, Moradiyeh and Caldiran. Review of 20th century and historical earthquakes in eastern Anatolian plate and west of Iranian plateau confirmed the activity of this area with the notable ...
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The earthquake of 23 October 2011, near the Turkish city of Van, had 600 victims and caused great damages in Van, Argis, Moradiyeh and Caldiran. Review of 20th century and historical earthquakes in eastern Anatolian plate and west of Iranian plateau confirmed the activity of this area with the notable earthquake of 24 November 1976 in Caldiran. The main objective of this paper is evaluation of predictability of earthquakes in this region. Presently, the two main approaches for predicting extreme events are precursory and pattern recognition algorithms. For this study, we applied M8 algorithm that is based on pattern recognition. In this respect,a 49 point network were designed around the epicenter of Van earthquake and M8 algorithm applied to this network. The end result was four zones with some overlaps that were proposed as CTIP (current time of increase probability). This study could predict the Van earthquake with 1/1/2008 to 30/12/2012 time window, 281 km local radius and magnitude of more than 7. In addition, forward prediction in this area shows there is no alarm for magnitude 7+ in next 5 years. This study showed the strength of M8 algorithm for predicting earthquakes in the Middle East. It can be concluded that using algorithms based on pattern recognition can play an important role for mitigation of damages in seismic events.
D Iranbodi; M Zare
Abstract
The south of Tehran lies in vicinity of the active faults such as Pishva, Kahrizak and Eyvan-E Key and in the case of re-rupturing of these faults a serious disaster, perhaps financial and life losses may be occurred. In IBC (International Building Code) formula (Darlene & Batatian, 2002) dip, displacement ...
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The south of Tehran lies in vicinity of the active faults such as Pishva, Kahrizak and Eyvan-E Key and in the case of re-rupturing of these faults a serious disaster, perhaps financial and life losses may be occurred. In IBC (International Building Code) formula (Darlene & Batatian, 2002) dip, displacement and footing of building and criticality of building code have been considered as important factors for setback zone. In up thrown side we must: S=U (2D+F.tan-1θ) . In down thrown side we must: S=U(2D) . There is gap of world standard setback zone in Pishva. The Iranian setback zone code does not respect the IBC formula and is based on the field observations. the formula of IBC consider slip rate of the fault, the displacement factor, the type of structure, foundation of the building and the sensitivity of structure, while in Iran the zoning of the Berberian et al. (1364), which is based on the fault type and field observations has been continuously used. Thus, with combination of these two methods and with regard to the geotechnical issues, construction can be designed more carefully.
